The most important events and trends of 2020-2021 in the automotive industry
2020 turned out to be both a problematic year for the automotive industry of the world and a milestone.
The problems were caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. It became a milestone due to decisions in most of the most developed regions of the world to gradually abandon the car with an internal combustion engine by the middle of the 30s. XXI century.
The year 2021 will probably become a milestone.
The three most important events in the automotive industry in 2020.
The first event is the coronavirus, which has affected both the sales of new cars and their production. At the beginning of last year 2020, there was a decline in car sales and sales around the world. China was the first major market to recover from the crisis. Already in May, China produced 2,187,361 against 1,848,342 in May 2019. This was also influenced by the resumed economic growth in China and the rapid elimination of the most obvious consequences of the epidemic. In autumn, sales and production began to rise in Russia. In Russia, this was facilitated by the attitude to buying cars as a means of investing financial resources and one of the ways to counteract inflation. But total sales and production figures for 2020 are lower than in 2019 in all countries, including China. And this applies to both the personal and commercial sectors.
The second event is the refusal of some European concerns from further development of cars with internal combustion engines. So new Volvo models will be either electric or hybrid. Mercedes is also moving away from conventional combustion engine models in favor of hybrid, electric and hydrogen vehicles. They are also actively creating commercial vehicles that run on various gas fuels. Such trucks and buses are actively produced in our country. In Russia, the production of electric buses has also begun. Work is underway on electric trucks: VIN lookup.
The third event is the adoption in the People's Republic of China, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, England, Japan and some US states, as well as in a number of other countries in Europe and Asia, of decisions requiring the abandonment of cars with internal combustion engines by certain years. The pioneer here is Norway, which is going to ban the sale of ICE cars in 2025. Many countries are going to ban such cars in 2030. France in 2040. Such a law is not ruled out in South Korea. China, Israel, India are going to introduce such a measure in 2030.
Top 3 potential developments
The first event is the launch of a car with a third degree of autonomy on the track. On such a car, the driver will only be needed to control the operation of the autopilot and to take control in an unstable or difficult traffic situation. The first will be the Japanese concern Honda with the sixth generation Honda Legend. Other automakers, including the already legendary Tesla, will implement this level of autopilot on the road a little later.
The second event - passenger electric cars from a toy for the rich and enthusiasts will become the final full-fledged competitor to cars with internal combustion engines and hybrids. Many technical problems have already been solved. For example, the problem of operation at negative temperatures is almost solved. There remains only the problem of charging and high cost, as well as the possibility of spontaneous combustion. But new car batteries from Toyota and Panasonic will solve the problem of fast charging (reference: VIN check).
The third development is the emergence of commercially successful trucks and buses powered by electricity. For example, eActros from Mercedes-Benz will be able to overcome 200 km without recharging, which will make its use rational. Although this is still not enough for successful competition with ICE-powered vehicles, it will at least make such operation relatively convenient in urban conditions.
Three trends in 2021
The first trend is the further development of electric vehicles and rechargeable hybrids. The number of companies producing electric vehicles will grow, and there will be more hybrids at first. Although on the track they are inferior to both cars with internal combustion engines and purely electric cars. But hybrids and electric trains are still city cars and, in fact, in the city they are most needed for the sake of ecology, and, accordingly, are most in demand.
The second trend is the development of hydrogen vehicles. For trucks, especially heavy and long-distance trucks, hydrogen looks much more preferable than an electric engine. Mercedes-Benz and other companies are active in such developments, as are some of our firms. KAMAZ will start developing hydrogen trucks and buses in 2021. Mercedes-Benz promises to have such a truck in production by 2024. But most likely it will be a little later: VIN lookup free.
The third trend is the development of online sales and the sale of cars under the “car by subscription” scheme. Previously, online car sales were more of a discussion topic than a really working scheme. Still, people prefer to buy personal vehicles "live", and many thought that they would sell a maximum of commercial vehicles this way. But the coronavirus has taken its toll.